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Seattle weather in august11/4/2023 West of the Cascade crest, there are equal chances of below, equal to, or above normal NDJ precipitation. For NDJ precipitation, there are slightly higher chances of below normal precipitation across eastern WA. The three-month outlook for November through January (NDJ) has a high probability of above normal temperatures across Washington State, with the odds between 50 and 60%. November precipitation is uncertain, with equal chances (i.e., 33.3% chance of each of the three outcomes) of below, equal to, or above normal precipitation across the whole state. The CPC one month temperature outlook for November has higher chances of above normal temperatures statewide. What does this mean for Washington in the coming months? The ENSO phase is taken into account in the CPC outlooks featured below, as well as long-term trends and seasonal climate model output. Washington winters tend to be warmer than normal during El Niño, and there are higher chances of a below normal snowpack by April 1. ENSO models are indicating very high chances (99%) that El Niño will persist through the winter (December-January-February), and it is likely to be a “moderate” to “strong” event. Average sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are the largest over the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, and both the equatorial ocean and atmosphere are reflecting El Niño conditions. Climate Outlook What’s Next for the Pacific Northwest? El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): El NiñoĪccording to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), El Niño conditions are currently present in the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean.
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